Saptrishi Soni।
Punjab’s next Assembly election is gradually emerging as a four-cornered political contest, with the Aam Aadmi Party, Congress, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal preparing for a battle that could reshape the state’s political landscape.
AAP enters the contest as the incumbent government and still possesses the biggest political advantage: the memory of its extraordinary 2022 victory, when it won 92 of the 117 Assembly seats.
But five years in government also means that the party will face a fundamentally different election.
In 2022, AAP was the challenger promising change. In 2027, it will be defending its record.
Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann will therefore have to persuade voters that the government’s achievements in employment, electricity, education, healthcare and welfare have translated into meaningful improvements in everyday life.
The opposition is already attempting to shift the political conversation towards drugs, law and order and governance.
The recent death of Sangrur resident Gulzar Singh after he raised questions about the drug menace with Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema has become one of the most politically damaging controversies for the government in recent weeks. The exact circumstances surrounding his death are being investigated, while Cheema has denied any connection to it.
Congress, meanwhile, is attempting an organisational reset.
The appointment of Sachin Pilot as the party’s Punjab in-charge is aimed at strengthening the state unit ahead of the election. Pilot will have to manage competing factions while building a campaign capable of challenging AAP across Punjab.
The BJP is also seeking to establish a stronger independent political identity in Punjab. The party’s challenge is to expand beyond the pockets where it has traditionally had influence and develop a sufficiently broad state-level organisation.
The SAD faces a different problem. Once a dominant force in Punjab politics, the party is attempting to rebuild its organisational and electoral base after a series of difficult election cycles.
The possibility of different alliances will remain an important factor, but each major party also has an incentive to strengthen its own position before deciding how it wants to approach the final electoral contest.
For AAP, retaining power would confirm that its 2022 victory was not simply an anti-incumbency wave against Congress and the Akalis.
For Congress, defeating AAP would represent a major political recovery in a state where the party dominated politics for decades.
For BJP, the objective is to transform its growing organisational presence into a serious electoral force.
For SAD, the election represents an opportunity to demonstrate that the Akali political tradition remains relevant in contemporary Punjab.
The biggest question is therefore not simply who will win in 2027. It is whether Punjab will return to a traditional Congress-Akali contest, remain an AAP-dominated state, or move towards a genuinely multi-cornered political system.
With the major parties now reorganising themselves, the answer will increasingly depend on how effectively each side addresses Punjab’s biggest concerns—drugs, employment, agriculture, fiscal pressure, law and order and the future of the state’s young population.
